Only 1/3 of Oregonians will vote to re-elect Gordon Smith
According to a new poll, Oregonians are fed up with Gordon Smith. Just 34% say they will vote to re-elect him. That's right, two out of every three Oregonians aren't convinced that he represents Oregon values.
And why should Oregonians re-elect Smith?
After all, a U.S. Senator who votes more than 20 times to fund and authorize the Iraq War, votes with President Bush 90 percent of the time, and earns failing ratings from environmental and pro-choice groups does not represent Oregon.
On the jump, check out the details from the DSCC...
A poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows that Oregon Senator Gordon Smith’s approval rating has dropped precipitously since the beginning of the year, with only 37% of likely Oregon voters now approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.In another sign of trouble for the Republican Senator, only 34% of voters say they will vote to re-elect him and 45% say they will consider voting or will vote to replace him with someone else.
“Oregonians have been paying close attention to Gordon Smith’s election year makeover and they’re just not buying it,” DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said. “Gordon Smith has proven he knows how to read a poll, but Oregonians want a Senator who will stand up for them all the time, and not just when campaign season rolls around.”
Smith’s job approval rating has dropped 9 points since earlier this year – in a poll taken for the DSCC in February and previously released, 46% Oregonians approved of Smith’s job performance, with 43% disapproving. Both polls were taken by Grove Insight. The latest poll of 500 likely voters was taken from May 31 to June 3 and has a margin of error of 4.4%.
Excerpted poll questions:
Now I'm going to read you the names of some public officials. After I read each name, please tell me if you think that officeholder is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job. If you aren't sure how good a job that person is doing, just say so.
Senator Gordon Smith...
| Excellent job | 6% |
| Good job | 31% |
| Only fair job | 38% |
| Poor job | 16% |
| Don't Know | 9% |
Thinking about the November 4th, 2008 general election for U.S, Senate, do you think you will vote to re-elect Gordon Smith, will you consider voting for someone else, or do you think you will vote to replace Smith?
| Re-elect Smith | 34% |
| Consider someone else | 24% |
| Vote to replace Smith | 21% |
| Don't know | 21% |
Posted July 17, 2007 Smith is Vulnerable 7 comments
Comments
Very interesting. The DSCC numbers from February track well with the same period from Survey USA, but the drop to 37%/54% by June (and where have they been with these results for over a month??) is much starker than SUSA's comparative version. Hard to say which number is closer to the truth, but at least apples to apples, Smith is declining in both polls.
Smith. Is. Vulnerable. This whole "Oh, Gordon is so popular with moderates and will be almost impossible to beat unless we have an A-list challenger" is total crap. He will put up a fight to be certain, but he is definitely weak.
While I think Smith is certainly vulnerable, it's going to take a somewhat moderate Democrat with some reasonable level of name familiarity to pull it off. Novick's is way way too far left and is pretty much an unknown outside his tight circle of leftist radicals. If a stronger Democrat doesn't toss their hat in the ring, then we most certainly are doomed to another 6 years of Gordo in Washington.
How about we start referring to him as, Senator Gordon 'salmon-killer' Smith, for his part in the Kalamath River fish kill in 2002? That would be a pretty negative and true moniker to be tagged with come election season.
Flip-flop Smith: Not fit to sit
I personally liked "Slick Gordo" myself.
Maybe we can have a contest to come up with the best pet name for him.
I agree that Smith is vulnerable and can (and should) be defeated. I also agree that these numbers are encouraging. However, we shouldn't read too much into them. Some of those "consider someone else" answers (and even some of the "replace Smith" answers) could have (and probably did) come from disaffected wingnuts who are disappointed with what they see as his waffling on issues like immigration and Iraq. These are votes that will ultimately "come home" in November.
Having said that, these are still terrible numbers for Smith and I'm looking forward to working on his defeat next year.
I agree that Smith is vulnerable and can (and should) be defeated. I also agree that these numbers are encouraging. However, we shouldn't read too much into them. Some of those "consider someone else" answers (and even some of the "replace Smith" answers) could have (and probably did) come from disaffected wingnuts who are disappointed with what they see as his waffling on issues like immigration and Iraq. These are votes that will ultimately "come home" in November.
Having said that, these are still terrible numbers for Smith and I'm looking forward to working on his defeat next year.
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