Polls And Pundits Say Smith Is In Trouble
Update From The Merkley Campaign Shows Smith Is In Trouble
Pundits across the country are now touting the race:
The Cook Political Report moved the Oregon race into the “toss up” category this week, along with Mark Udall in Colorado, Al Franken in Minnesota, and others.
“The scales may be tipping in the Oregon Senate race,” said The Wall Street Journal on Friday.
And The Washington Post took a dig at Gordon Smith, saying that his campaign ads with Barack Obama “reeked of desperation.”
Like you would expect, the Smith campaign has switched strategies, returning to the negative campaign ads Smith ran against Jeff Merkley during the Democratic primary.
The Oregonian writes that Smith’s latest ads “exaggerate,” calling them a “pretty clever case of selective editing.”
The Latest News:
The latest poll shows Jeff Merkley leading Republican Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. A new Rasmussen poll shows Merkley leading Smith 43 to 41 percent.
See how the race has narrowed:
Smith is dropping dramatically among registered Democrats, after airing nearly $2 million of paid advertisements targeting Democratic voters with ads touting his ties to Barack Obama and Smith’s conversion on the Iraq war following the 2006 election.
While many observers believe Smith’s greatest liability is the national political climate, new numbers show that Smith’s greatest liability is Smith. He is the only Republican on the West Coast and has become fundamentally out of sync with a state that has changed dramatically over just the past year.
Voter registration numbers for June show that the margin of registered Democrats in Oregon has grown from roughly 70,000 a year ago to more than 200,000. During that time Republican registration dropped from 693,000 to 672,000 and Democratic registration grew from 759,000 to 879,000.
Here are the overall breakdowns:
Total Percentage
Democrat
879,000
43.20%
Republican
672,000
33.10%
Non-Affiliated
406,000
20.00%
Other
76,000
3.70%
A year ago Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 4,000 in Clackamas and Washington Counties, important swing areas outside of Portland. Now Democrats outnumber Republicans in these counties by 30,000 registered voters. The margin in Multnomah County has also grown from 113,000 to 156,000 Democratic majority.
Democratic support for Merkley is skyrocketing, and while that may not be statistically significant in other states, it will make all the difference in defeating Gordon Smith this fall.
Posted July 21, 2008 Smith is Vulnerable 2 comments
Comments
I told Jeff that "He is the man!" We are going to win this thing!
I told Jeff that "He is the man!" We are going to win this thing!
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